Indian Recession 2026?

4 Key states in India - Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala go for polling during April 2026. The two-phase elections will be over by end of April. Results shall be announced on 4 May 2026.

In a recent report, Kotak Corporate, Institutional & Investment Banking projects a steep increase of a Rs 25–28 per litre of petrol and diesel. The crude oil is staying close to  USD 120 per barrel and given the situation, the cost of refining and selling fuel far exceeds current retail prices.

India’s Modi Government is funding INR 27,000 cr pm to bridge the gap between crude costs and retail prices, a figure that is simply not sustainable over an extended period.

In the days and weeks to come, expect a raise in transportation expenses, increased delivery charges, and influence demand in sectors like automobiles and rural markets.

To begin with, fruits and vegetables will get more expensive. And disproportionately This will impact what the Indian middle class households will buy; and how the Summer (vacation) of 2026 will unfold at homes. 

Eating out will become more expensive, with Restaurants passing over the incremental (procurement and distribution) costs to diners. 

Ordering food home will be a lot more expensive - expect additional delivery charges as the Gig workers will require higher incomes to cover higher petrol costs. 

With FMCG companies unable to increase distributors and retail margins immediately, the supply chain ecosystem will face a huge short- to mid-term (say 6 months) challenge, until MRP of products is revised in a phased manner ahead of Q3 Festival season. 

Vacations would get costlier. A 300-km drive to hometown during May and June will increase the cost of travel will setback the family by (300kms /15 kmpl = 20 litres * INR 25 incremental) INR 500 on an average. Toll rates across India have already been increased on 1 April 2026. 

While State Government-led transportation could increase the ticket prices a little, private bus operators will jump in! That means train tickets (for summer travel) would get more scarce, especially Tatkal bookings, even as more families would prefer train travel instead of buses or by taxis or personal vehicles. 

Expect a situation where the waiting time for EVs would get longer. Once the prices of fuel go up, more car owners would opt for a new or a second car for the family being an EV; upgrades from hatchbacks will now move towards EVs. 

Luxury cars (priced over INR 75 lakhs) & Premium passenger vehicles (priced between INR 30 - 75 lakhs) would upgrade only for a similar sized EV, with their ICE vehicles’ mileage already low and a disproportionate increase in fuel costs.

With a huge round of job losses recently in IT, Banking, FinTech and BPO looming large in India, several lakhs of people will find it difficult to demand an increment in salaries from their employers as part of revision for FY 26-27.

Are we headed for a recession?

Perhaps not immediately. 

It would take 3 months for Indians to adjust to the increase in fuel prices, with the already-high gold prices. But the shock will settle down in 4-6 months ahead of the festival season beginning August.  

Mind you, however, the fashion industry and Organised Retail - comprising largely apparel, accessories and footwear will take the worst hit over Q2 mostly. 

Brace up for a severe turbulence.

Revenge travelling is here to stay

I returned back home on 17th Oct. 2020 after a two week business trip across Karnataka. With this, I have completed 9,400 kms of travel by road since 10 Aug. 2020 when I stepped out of home for the first time after a 150-day self-imposed exile, thanks to multiple lockdowns due to the Covid-19 Virus outbreak. The rubber I have burned is mostly self-driven and partially chauffer driven. But for a short trip to visit some of my favourite temples in September, all other trips have been on work. I have met already 80% of my 140-member sales team at Levista Coffee across TN & KA these last two months and as I write this, my Samsonite is gleefully smiling at me for yet another trip that begins Tuesday and thereafter. 

Revenge Travel, as the term has claimed obnoxity in the recent past is here to stay, I guess. If trends are to be believed (and seen personally!), I guess it is so. To begin with, some hard numbers issued by the Oil Industry in India indicate the same. A 1.65% & 1.5% increase in Diesel and Petrol consumption compared to last year, same period. A very small single percentage number of growth but the digits make it look more attractive. For the record, India consumes 3x Diesel to Petrol, noticeably because most of the goods movement in India is by trucks and they are almost 100% Diesel-driven. Due to the surge in work related travel to scores of us and a lack of public transportation, even taxis (mostly diesel consuming ones) are back in demand while a small portion of personal vehicles (like mine) use diesel as well. 

Sale of Petrol grew to 982,000 tons in the first half of October, up from 967,000 tons in the same period in 2019 and 968,000 tons in the first fortnight of Sep. 2020 while Diesel sales rose to 2.65 million tons in the first fortnight of October from 2.43 million tons a year back and 2.13 million tons in the first half of Sep. 2020. With the Navarathri / Dassera / Pujo festivities lined up in the second fortnight of October and a subdued yet enthusiastic Deepavali in the anvil, it seems that fuel consumption is going to continue to rise. 

Another noticeable point is the upward trend in Fastag usages, from Rs. 1,800 Cr. in Feb. 2020 to approx. Rs. 1,700 Cr in Aug. 2020. And this, even as I see fewer vehicles in the dedicated Fastag lanes compared to the “cash lanes” across several Toll Plazas where I have travelled the last two and half months. One obvious negative trend is the dwindling numbers at highway restaurants, cafés and pit-stops. From the nondescript coffee kiosks dotted along the highways to the more organised eating joints, there is a significant drop in numbers, save for a select few which are in high demand due to scarcity of outlets in the vicinity. 

Interestingly, I saw a number of vehicles parked aside the Highways and people eating off plates, perhaps with home-cooked food – a trend which was the “only” way before the driving-down trends began around a decade back. The otherwise famous cafés which witness a huge surge in visitors riding their prized motorcycles or cavalcades of cars with bunches of friends and families is sorely missed, quip restaurant managers and owners.

Hotels that provide lodging are also seeing a growth in occupancy levels albeit still less than 50% of pre-Covid levels which used to hover around 65% on an average but for weekends where select properties were lucky with a full house. I still wonder if the entire room is fully sanitized, linens washed off after every guest departs – not just an expensive affair but also laborious, one reason why I have been cautious about where I retire for the night during my travels. And the F&B areas of these hotels are no different with social distancing of tables and limited numbers of Chairs per table to avoid crowding. Most restaurants avoid Buffet – which has been proven to be one of the fastest ways to spread the dreaded virus, especially with a number of people sharing crockery and cutlery.

As clichéd as it sounds, “Revenge Travel” is here to stay. Only difference is that most of the Tourism business will be Domestic and the Indian Hospitality Industry cannot ask for more.