Indian Recession 2026?

4 Key states in India - Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala go for polling during April 2026. The two-phase elections will be over by end of April. Results shall be announced on 4 May 2026.

In a recent report, Kotak Corporate, Institutional & Investment Banking projects a steep increase of a Rs 25–28 per litre of petrol and diesel. The crude oil is staying close to  USD 120 per barrel and given the situation, the cost of refining and selling fuel far exceeds current retail prices.

India’s Modi Government is funding INR 27,000 cr pm to bridge the gap between crude costs and retail prices, a figure that is simply not sustainable over an extended period.

In the days and weeks to come, expect a raise in transportation expenses, increased delivery charges, and influence demand in sectors like automobiles and rural markets.

To begin with, fruits and vegetables will get more expensive. And disproportionately This will impact what the Indian middle class households will buy; and how the Summer (vacation) of 2026 will unfold at homes. 

Eating out will become more expensive, with Restaurants passing over the incremental (procurement and distribution) costs to diners. 

Ordering food home will be a lot more expensive - expect additional delivery charges as the Gig workers will require higher incomes to cover higher petrol costs. 

With FMCG companies unable to increase distributors and retail margins immediately, the supply chain ecosystem will face a huge short- to mid-term (say 6 months) challenge, until MRP of products is revised in a phased manner ahead of Q3 Festival season. 

Vacations would get costlier. A 300-km drive to hometown during May and June will increase the cost of travel will setback the family by (300kms /15 kmpl = 20 litres * INR 25 incremental) INR 500 on an average. Toll rates across India have already been increased on 1 April 2026. 

While State Government-led transportation could increase the ticket prices a little, private bus operators will jump in! That means train tickets (for summer travel) would get more scarce, especially Tatkal bookings, even as more families would prefer train travel instead of buses or by taxis or personal vehicles. 

Expect a situation where the waiting time for EVs would get longer. Once the prices of fuel go up, more car owners would opt for a new or a second car for the family being an EV; upgrades from hatchbacks will now move towards EVs. 

Luxury cars (priced over INR 75 lakhs) & Premium passenger vehicles (priced between INR 30 - 75 lakhs) would upgrade only for a similar sized EV, with their ICE vehicles’ mileage already low and a disproportionate increase in fuel costs.

With a huge round of job losses recently in IT, Banking, FinTech and BPO looming large in India, several lakhs of people will find it difficult to demand an increment in salaries from their employers as part of revision for FY 26-27.

Are we headed for a recession?

Perhaps not immediately. 

It would take 3 months for Indians to adjust to the increase in fuel prices, with the already-high gold prices. But the shock will settle down in 4-6 months ahead of the festival season beginning August.  

Mind you, however, the fashion industry and Organised Retail - comprising largely apparel, accessories and footwear will take the worst hit over Q2 mostly. 

Brace up for a severe turbulence.

A mega transformation in the anvil

When we entered this project in Nov. '25, my only request to the Board of Directors was to allow us to redesign the entire 15-acre property, instead of us merely leasing the 4 lakh sq ft of retail spaces. 

Texvalley was designed and established over a decade ago to enable buyers of textile materials from all across India and the world to choose their partners under one roof.

Subsequently, the project has gone through several iterations all the last 15 years. 

When my colleagues and our extended team members sat and stared at the blueprint, we were not just buzzing with ideas, but also put them in a perspective. 

We sliced one large 15-acre plot into 9 different offerings -

1) Retail areas spread over 3 lakh sq ft

2) F&B spread over 1 lakh sq ft

3) 4-screen multiplex with an estimated 8,17,600 admissions per year

4) Sports arena with access to 51 different kinds of sports

5) Office spaces spread over 1.5 lakh sq ft to house 2,500+ people

6) A shopping destination for wedding needs spread over 30,000 sq ft including sarees, dhotis, gold, silver, diamond and artificial jewellery, wedding planners, vendors, etc.

7). 40-keys business hotel - the only one on the Coimbatore - Bangalore NH and / or Co-living spaces to house over 250+ people

8). Convention Hall cum Wedding arena spread over 70,000 sq ft

9). Last but not the least - India’s largest EV Charging point where 100 vehicles could charge simultaneously on a National Highway in India! 

In a span of just 100 days, (but with a lot of strategy applied), one property spread over 15 acres became nine different concepts. 

We estimate the footfalls to the premises to grow 20x once all these amenities in place. 

That the Tidel Park Neo is next wall to the property is an icing to the cake. the facility is expected to be ready by late 2027 and over 2,000 people are expected to work here.

The team at Miles2Go is proud to have been part of this project, as we bow out of this incredible opportunity. 

For me, personally, this is a great breakthrough in my Consulting career, even as I have stood so many days between 2016-2019 while driving on the same National Highway, staring at the project and wondering how could I be a part of it.

Grateful to the Almighty to have given me this role to play.

For the sake of money!

I was devastated to see Indian Cricketing sensation Virat Kohli endorsing Johnnie Walker through a surrogate Advertisement in the front page of The Times Of India dt. Fr. 27 March 2026. 

The product is JW Luxe Water. Really, Viru? 

Yes, he has the right to choose the category / brand that he wishes to advertise. 

But when you have millions of youth following you - professionally and personally - is it morally right to endorse, even surrogately, a liquor brand? 

A few years ago, MS Dhoni did the same by endorsing SNJ, a popular brand of beer sold exclusively at Tamil Nadu Government operated TASMAC liquor retail stores. 

TASMAC is estimated to report revenues of INR 50,000 Cr through 4,787 shops across Tamil Nadu and is one of the key revenue sources for the state.

The product that MSD endorsed was SNJ Sugar.

But Really? 

There was much furore recently that Actor Ajith Kumar endorsed CAMPA COLA for his sporting business Ajith Kumar Racing. His ardents fans, including your’s truly wondered if he would feed the beverage to his son, let alone consuming it for real in the ad. 

For years, Sachin Tendulkar and others have been endorsing Boost Energy Drink, though one wonders whether they consume the sugary drink in real life. 

In his latest outing Coolie, Superstar Rajinikanth is seen consuming alcohol on screen after 23 years - the last was in the film Baba which released in the year 2002.

Are celebrities allowed to endorse any every brand / product / category? 

I personally feel let down by scores of such celebrities who endorse products which are not good for health and promote obesity, unhelthy consumption of tobacco and liqour products.

What’s you take on this?