Indian Recession 2026?

4 Key states in India - Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala go for polling during April 2026. The two-phase elections will be over by end of April. Results shall be announced on 4 May 2026.

In a recent report, Kotak Corporate, Institutional & Investment Banking projects a steep increase of a Rs 25–28 per litre of petrol and diesel. The crude oil is staying close to  USD 120 per barrel and given the situation, the cost of refining and selling fuel far exceeds current retail prices.

India’s Modi Government is funding INR 27,000 cr pm to bridge the gap between crude costs and retail prices, a figure that is simply not sustainable over an extended period.

In the days and weeks to come, expect a raise in transportation expenses, increased delivery charges, and influence demand in sectors like automobiles and rural markets.

To begin with, fruits and vegetables will get more expensive. And disproportionately This will impact what the Indian middle class households will buy; and how the Summer (vacation) of 2026 will unfold at homes. 

Eating out will become more expensive, with Restaurants passing over the incremental (procurement and distribution) costs to diners. 

Ordering food home will be a lot more expensive - expect additional delivery charges as the Gig workers will require higher incomes to cover higher petrol costs. 

With FMCG companies unable to increase distributors and retail margins immediately, the supply chain ecosystem will face a huge short- to mid-term (say 6 months) challenge, until MRP of products is revised in a phased manner ahead of Q3 Festival season. 

Vacations would get costlier. A 300-km drive to hometown during May and June will increase the cost of travel will setback the family by (300kms /15 kmpl = 20 litres * INR 25 incremental) INR 500 on an average. Toll rates across India have already been increased on 1 April 2026. 

While State Government-led transportation could increase the ticket prices a little, private bus operators will jump in! That means train tickets (for summer travel) would get more scarce, especially Tatkal bookings, even as more families would prefer train travel instead of buses or by taxis or personal vehicles. 

Expect a situation where the waiting time for EVs would get longer. Once the prices of fuel go up, more car owners would opt for a new or a second car for the family being an EV; upgrades from hatchbacks will now move towards EVs. 

Luxury cars (priced over INR 75 lakhs) & Premium passenger vehicles (priced between INR 30 - 75 lakhs) would upgrade only for a similar sized EV, with their ICE vehicles’ mileage already low and a disproportionate increase in fuel costs.

With a huge round of job losses recently in IT, Banking, FinTech and BPO looming large in India, several lakhs of people will find it difficult to demand an increment in salaries from their employers as part of revision for FY 26-27.

Are we headed for a recession?

Perhaps not immediately. 

It would take 3 months for Indians to adjust to the increase in fuel prices, with the already-high gold prices. But the shock will settle down in 4-6 months ahead of the festival season beginning August.  

Mind you, however, the fashion industry and Organised Retail - comprising largely apparel, accessories and footwear will take the worst hit over Q2 mostly. 

Brace up for a severe turbulence.

A mega transformation in the anvil

When we entered this project in Nov. '25, my only request to the Board of Directors was to allow us to redesign the entire 15-acre property, instead of us merely leasing the 4 lakh sq ft of retail spaces. 

Texvalley was designed and established over a decade ago to enable buyers of textile materials from all across India and the world to choose their partners under one roof.

Subsequently, the project has gone through several iterations all the last 15 years. 

When my colleagues and our extended team members sat and stared at the blueprint, we were not just buzzing with ideas, but also put them in a perspective. 

We sliced one large 15-acre plot into 9 different offerings -

1) Retail areas spread over 3 lakh sq ft

2) F&B spread over 1 lakh sq ft

3) 4-screen multiplex with an estimated 8,17,600 admissions per year

4) Sports arena with access to 51 different kinds of sports

5) Office spaces spread over 1.5 lakh sq ft to house 2,500+ people

6) A shopping destination for wedding needs spread over 30,000 sq ft including sarees, dhotis, gold, silver, diamond and artificial jewellery, wedding planners, vendors, etc.

7). 40-keys business hotel - the only one on the Coimbatore - Bangalore NH and / or Co-living spaces to house over 250+ people

8). Convention Hall cum Wedding arena spread over 70,000 sq ft

9). Last but not the least - India’s largest EV Charging point where 100 vehicles could charge simultaneously on a National Highway in India! 

In a span of just 100 days, (but with a lot of strategy applied), one property spread over 15 acres became nine different concepts. 

We estimate the footfalls to the premises to grow 20x once all these amenities in place. 

That the Tidel Park Neo is next wall to the property is an icing to the cake. the facility is expected to be ready by late 2027 and over 2,000 people are expected to work here.

The team at Miles2Go is proud to have been part of this project, as we bow out of this incredible opportunity. 

For me, personally, this is a great breakthrough in my Consulting career, even as I have stood so many days between 2016-2019 while driving on the same National Highway, staring at the project and wondering how could I be a part of it.

Grateful to the Almighty to have given me this role to play.

For the sake of money!

I was devastated to see Indian Cricketing sensation Virat Kohli endorsing Johnnie Walker through a surrogate Advertisement in the front page of The Times Of India dt. Fr. 27 March 2026. 

The product is JW Luxe Water. Really, Viru? 

Yes, he has the right to choose the category / brand that he wishes to advertise. 

But when you have millions of youth following you - professionally and personally - is it morally right to endorse, even surrogately, a liquor brand? 

A few years ago, MS Dhoni did the same by endorsing SNJ, a popular brand of beer sold exclusively at Tamil Nadu Government operated TASMAC liquor retail stores. 

TASMAC is estimated to report revenues of INR 50,000 Cr through 4,787 shops across Tamil Nadu and is one of the key revenue sources for the state.

The product that MSD endorsed was SNJ Sugar.

But Really? 

There was much furore recently that Actor Ajith Kumar endorsed CAMPA COLA for his sporting business Ajith Kumar Racing. His ardents fans, including your’s truly wondered if he would feed the beverage to his son, let alone consuming it for real in the ad. 

For years, Sachin Tendulkar and others have been endorsing Boost Energy Drink, though one wonders whether they consume the sugary drink in real life. 

In his latest outing Coolie, Superstar Rajinikanth is seen consuming alcohol on screen after 23 years - the last was in the film Baba which released in the year 2002.

Are celebrities allowed to endorse any every brand / product / category? 

I personally feel let down by scores of such celebrities who endorse products which are not good for health and promote obesity, unhelthy consumption of tobacco and liqour products.

What’s you take on this?

EVs in India - really?

In Jan. ‘26, I took a test drive of the beloved Tesla from the BKC store. I preferred that the salesperson drive and that I would simply enjoy the view, for a change.

Boy, from the Worli sealink U-turn, the salesperson pressed the accelerator and showed the vehicle’s capabilities. I was impressed, though not stunned. 

For a company that has been at this tech for 3 decades, it is not such a big story or a feature for the autophile in me.

What impressed me more, was the kaali-peeli (black and yellow) cabs and the vatanukul (a/c) taxis continue to ply shoulder to shoulder with the German speedsters, the Indian rockstar auto-brands, the white coloured taxis and of course, those walking hurriedly across roads.

At times, one reaches their destination faster (in Mumbai) of they prefer to walk, then to get dropped in a car / cab. 

To fully absorb and utilise the features of the Tesla, I wondered if potential buyers would spend 60-90 mins just to get to the outskirts. 

I recall, during the 2010s, Royal Enfield where I doubled the number of dealerships across India at the time, positioned itself not as a commuter bike, rather a leisure automobile. 

It was a fun-toy for the grown up adults to manoeuvre over the weekends, a bit of a show-off and mostly to admire the ride no matter how bumpy the roads were. 

I felt the same with Tesla as well.

At best, the Luxury EVs in India offered by Audi India BMW Group Mercedes-Benz India Volvo Cars Mahindra and Mahindra Limited [Automotive and Farm Equipment Business] Tata Motors and ofcourse not to leave behind Rolls-Royce are no more than eye-candy.

We still continue to use coal-powered Electricity to draw power to these beasts, thereby defeating the larger purpose of EVs. 

Even as auto-enthusiasts quarrel on social media platforms about their beloved brands of EVs, the common man - read the INR 1 lakh and above households - do not really care about Net-neutrality. 

Eventually, when they buy a bike or a car, it is mostly about - “Kitni deti hai” - what’s the mileage. 

And that’s what matters to most Indians. No wonder, EV penetration remains so low in the country, with hardly visible public infrastructure for charging, let along using renewable energy! 

Reflections: I didn’t sign up for this

It was a cold Saturday morning during end-January 2010. I was reading the Harvard Business Review (HBR) magazine outside the office of the Chairman of Café Coffee Day (CCD). 

It was a ritual at CCD that every 10 days, Late Mr. VG Siddhartha would meet the All India Business Development Team which I was heading, along with our CEO, COO and the Operations team.

We would display the potential real estate opportunities on a PPT, with my colleagues joining virtually from all across India. By the end of the meeting, we would collectively take a decision whether to lease or not the space, based on various metrics.

I was just into the role, and it was my 4th meeting or so with this elite group. 

When the Chairman came out of the Conference Room from the previous meeting, he saw me waiting outside with a puzzled look. This kept repeating over the next 2 times. The 10th floor was access-restricted, which means only a select few could access it.

A couple days later during a one-on one, my CEO told me to come only after he sends me a BBM (remember!) & not earlier. I gave a blank look to which he enquired what was the reason.

I said, I come to the 10th floor a tad earlier, just to read the HBR magazine as I couldn’t it afford otherwise to buy. Now, he gave me a puzzled look too.

When I met the cafe team at Dharmshala, 2010

Ahead of the next meeting, my CEO told me to come early and read the HBR, as advised by the Chairman. The news had gone to him, after all. 

I was a bit surprised and embarrassed at the same time; but then it was ok to chew my ego & read the HBR magazine when possible. And that’s what mattered finally.

16 years later, I was taking the evening cab from Hotel Taj Lands End after the completion of the first Module of the Senior Leadership Program (SELP) offered by Harvard Business School (HBS). 

I kept staring at the Mumbai skyline 360*. When I was crossing Kurla, I wondered how the baby born at Sion Hospital 5 decades ago, was now a big boy and was a student at the prestigious Harvard University (Mumbai camp). 

And he would soon become a Graduate (fingers crossed) at the Boston campus of HBS by the end of 2026!

All through the 35-min drive (which felt almost eternal), I was gathering all that happened during these past 15 days.

I was slowly absorbing what I have learned from four top Professors who had descended to India from Boston, exclusive to teach and to share their knowledge with us.

The 46 incredible people in our batch represent various industries, vocations and businesses, from all across India, the Middle East & the Philippines.

It would take me a lifetime, perhaps, to understand the kind of impact that this year-long course would create on a professional like me.

I had embraced the Retail Industry at a young age of 19 almost by chance, as a waiter scooping ice-cream at Baskin Robbins in Chennai in the year 1997.

Ever since, I have never looked back away from the Indian Retail Industry. Not that the other industries (or countries) are any less attractive or financially rewarding, but my roots were and are in the Indian Retail Industry and I shall remain here forever.

The Leadership lessons from over 30+ case studies that we have discussed, disagreed, debated and left them open-ended – for, that’s how cases are done - with my Professors and batch mates were an eye opener on Leadership.

After all, one of the key roles of a Leader, according to me, is to be a good listener first.

Before we meet again in less than 12 weeks, we have a lot of reflections (and perhaps some executions at workplace as well) to be done on what has already been taught, as well as take up other online assignments as part of the Course.

When Prof. Stefan Thomke asked me a few days back about the course and my leaning towards it, I simply said, “I didn’t sign up for this Prof; I thought it was a going to be a 3-feet swimming pool where I could play and have fun and lo behold, this is an ocean. And by the way, I do not know swimming either”. 

But then, I do not have a choice but to uphold the values of being a student (and later on, an alumni) of the world’s most prestigious “Harvard” badge. I assured him, I will do my best. 

As Amitabh Bachchan would quip in a different context in the film K3G (2001), “Prampara hai beta, Paramapara hai…”

Loving this avatar as an eternal student of Retail. And I have Miles To Go, after all.

My Tesla India experience

On a bright and sunny Saturday afternoon, I decided to walk in to the Tesla India showroom located at Jio World Drive at BKC, Mumbai. It was my first visit btw.

I was quite surprised, that there was not even a single potential customer for enquiries or for a test drive. 

Given that the BKC is a second CBD in city, perhaps it is understandable that the working executives are not around.

The showroom was opened to the public in July 2025 amidst a huge PR exercise. Elon Musk was conspicuously absent for the India launch at the time. 

However, Bloomberg last week reported that Tesla India is sitting on over 50% unsold inventory which have already been brought in to India last year.

Inside the showroom, the staff member, Mr. Zaheer was very keen and forthcoming to showcase the car to me.  He took personal interest to understand my needs and explained it all to me.

He was also kind enough to take me for a spin all the way up to the Sealink toll and we took a U-turn there. 

Pretty nice experience, I must say. Especially being a co-pax., which I chose to be. Just to understand what my family would feel sitting in there. 

The cabin is extremely spacious. 

As Steve Jobs would say, Design is not how it look, rather how it works. Folks at Tesla seem to have got everything right indeed, in terms of the design feature of everything inside the vehicle. 

State taxes seem to be a killer, according to the numbers Zaheer showed me. 

Road Taxes for key states are as below;

• Telangana: INR 14,24,892
• Karnataka: INR 717,989
• Tamil Nadu: INR 7,060

Isn’t it amazing that the that one state charges 200 times of another! Welcome to the crazy Indian taxation system.

So, the on-road price, if I were to take the Tesla Model Y to Chennai, I would have to spend INR 69 Lakhs ++.

The price is jacked up mainly because India imposes 100% import duty on vehicles that are neither made or assembled in the country. This was the main reason for the US-India Tariff wars around the summer of 2025. 

On the other hand, if I were to use the same INR 70 lakhs, I could probably buy not one, but 3 top-end EVs as below;

• Mahindra 9E: INR 31 lakhs (approx)
• Tata Safari EV: INR 31 lakhs (approx)
• MG Comet: INR 10 lakh (approx)
• Total: INR 72 lakhs

Given the “international badging” and the after sales support, many Indian consumers seem to be weary of the situation to invest on a Tesla in India. 

What’s your take on buying a Tesla? 

Would you go for it, especially if you are in Mumbai? And would you rather buy buy 1 EV instead of three? Would be keen to know your views. 

PS: The visit to Tesla showroom coincided with my ongoing year long Leadership Course at Harvard Business School.

2025: The year that was…

It was a lonely night on 31 Dec. ’24. I was laid off from my previous role 2 months ago and had been wondering what should I do in the coming months. 

Wanted to go on a long pan-India drive, but didn’t have enough to cover expenses for 3 weeks. Thought of a few start-up ideas that would work in the post-Covid, quick commerce era, but Capital & subsequent scaling was a concern. 

After struggling to attend half a dozen interviews for senior management roles, I realised that the market for CXO roles was not just shrinking. 

It was also getting clear that the closures were happening through references to the Chairman’s / MDs Office from within smaller circles.

I had two choices – to go through the arduous route of connecting with top CXOs within the Retail Industry one by one and seek their support. The other one was to take the “miles” less travelled. 

In the pre-Interval scene of his 2024 outing Jailer, Superstar Rajinikanth would sit down on a chair, slowly turn his face, smile and utter his next steps. 

Similarly, I said it to myself – if I do not get an assured Offer Letter by 15th Jan. ’25, then I would get back to the road less travelled – Independent Consulting. I had bootstrapped Miles2Go Consulting, a boutique Advisory firm in Aug. 2014.

In no time, I was already servicing two prestigious clients, one a 25-year old global FMCG brand at Bangalore and another one - a Fahion behemoth backed with over 50 years’ legacy of the Promoters.

Fashion and FMCG continue to be the two key verticals within organised retail that I am most passionate about in Consulting.

I began my road and rail travel across states and was giving my best, learning every day about the vast ocean that is Retailing, one SKU at a time.

 

In a sudden & unexpected turn of events, I managed to get placed as a “Partner” to be based in Bangalore at one of the Global Consulting & Advisory firms in the world. 

The annual take home package was an exciting 8-figure salary to build from scratch and lead their Retail Practice in the Indian sub-continent. It sounded surreal and I was overjoyed.

After sending the “offer letter” at 2pm on Friday signed by none other than the Chairperson of the Firm, which was after a month of deliberations, discussions and several rounds of interviews, the Firm decided to retract the offer given to me the following Monday!

I was stunned. Sugar levels trebled. Blood pressure shot up. Irregular bowels, coupled with sleep pattern disturbances and a general loss of interest in life led me to several disturbing days and nights. Was being pushed to border-line depression. 

The world came sinking. Not because I lost a job. Not because of someone invalidating my credentials based on hearsay and rumours. 

But the fact that there was zero-professionalism left in several corporates in the garb of international firms, which I have seen one after the other.

A bit of solo-travel and short-bursts of temple visits during April 2025 helped. 

I spent a lot of time alone, speaking less, reading more and articulating more than ever, what was being said and between the words. 

Thanks to a bunch of well-wishers and close friends, I was pushed to restart my Advisory firm – “Miles2Go Consulting Services” – M2G which was on a break since 2022.

And not just to start, those around me suggested that I build the “Practice” along with a team, rather than living and dying as an Independent consultant supported by associated off and on. 

When I mooted the idea to a few other professionals, they too advised that I take this up in a bigger way and lo-behold, on 1st April 2025, I began Ver. 2.0 of M2G.

This time, it was going to be a planned approach on scaling. A crafted, chiselled one, rather. With a clear Vision, surrounded by a bunch of passionate professionals.

First was to decide how will we be different from our earlier avatar, when Shriram and M2G were intertwined and the names simply replaced each other. In Ver. 2.0, I told myself, that shouldn’t be the case. 

M2G should be a team and the outcome should also be credited to the team. 

While I would remain hands-on in every project, I would take a back seat in the day today operations.

Then, I set about to focus on the five key verticals that we would focus on in 2025 – Retail Leasing, Hiring, Training, PR Strategy + Offline / Events Execution. Know more about us here.

These are areas I have chosen to remain afar since I began Consulting in 2014. 

We felt that these could not just bring in additional revenues, but would also provide us with a bigger reach to newer clients and a larger world out there.

On 31st August 2025, we organised our first public event at Spencers Plaza to celebrate the “Madras Formation Day”, now celebrated over a month.

What was most unexpected was the office space we landed upon. 

I have been infamous for not taking my parents advice seriously since childhood, however this time I decided to cold-call at a large office complex as suggested by Dad. 

I was lucky that the place was not only available, but I was able to finalise the place and move-in within a record time. A fully furnished 2,500 sq ft A-grade office in the heart of the city at Mylapore, Chennai.

On the auspicious Vijaya Dasami Day 2025, my parents performed the office pujas and we started working from there since then. 

The team size slowly began to increase, even as knowledgeable and passionate people from their domains agreed to give me a try and to join my team. 

It’s been a good three months in the new office and I cannot thank my personal and professional family enough for their unstinted support all these months.

As we speak, we are serving half a dozen clients across Business Strategy, Hiring & Training, with a team size of 40 members. 

Whenever I sit in my chair, it sounds surreal. This is not what I had vaguely dreamt about 365 days ago. But God had other plans, after all.

As I say every morning when I wake up, “We have just begun. We have Miles To Go…” 

Do drop by our office and encourage us to do more. We are located here.