Summarising 2010

I read through my own article written exactly a year ago and I was able to realise the positive energy around me these days. Indeed, Retail is back in action and retailers are glooming. Employees of various Retail Companies are busy, scouting new locations, charting exciting Marketing Plans and working towards the best Customer Service possible. After all, consumers are happier too. The first instance where consumers stop spending during a slowdown as well as splurge their excess funds is in Retail and it was quite clear this year. Large Retailers have reported between 15-40% increase in Sales year on year. While the main challenge in 2009 for Retailers was to bring consumers to the Retail stores, it was increasing the wallet-share that was the key focus area in 2010. I should say that most Retailers have been successful in this regard, which is clearly visible basis the current mood in the economy.

The year started off a bit dull, until the union Budgets were announced. Housing Interests once again fell down drastically, pushing the economy at a higher pace. Automobile manufacturers passed on additional discounts and freebies encouraging consumers to buy now, buy more! Apparel Retailers witnessed higher throughputs, largely because the shopping cycles had reduced in the previous four seasons. F&B and Restaurant players witnessed the “bill values” go higher since people were spending more these days than earlier. Large international players such as Spanish Fashion Brand Zara and UK based toys retailer Hamley’s who had earlier shown interest in the Indian market, entered with large stores in Delhi and Mumbai and are expanding across other cities. French haute couture house Nina Ricci and shoemaker Christian Louboutin and Italian fashion label Max Mara are also eyeing India, according to Boston Consulting. Marc Ecko will launch the brand in the coming spring in a partnership with RPG Group’s retail flagship Spencer’s Retail Ltd, which plans to have in place at least five international alliances next year. Yesterday (on 30^th Dec. 2010), Carrefour, the world’s second largest Retailer from France opened its door for shoppers at the most unlikely location at Shahadhara, in East Delhi. "The opening of this first store marks Carrefour's entry into the Indian market and will be followed shortly by the opening of other cash-and-carry stores," Carrefour CEO Lars Olofsson said in a statement. Bharti-Walmart opened a handful of Cash & Carry stores this year at Zirakhpur, Kota, Ludhiana and Bhopal, with a dozen more lined up for the next three years.

Meanwhile, Indian Retailers have been keeping pace with the speed at which shoppers have been marching. India’s largest Retailer, The Future Group has opened several large format retail locations including Central Malls, Home Town, Pantaloon Fashion stores and most importantly, the company’s flagship Big Bazaar. At the India Retail Forum held in Mumbai in September, organized by Images multimedia, the father of Indian Retail Industry Kishore Biyani responded to a question and said “The biggest lesson learnt is we cannot be everything to everyone and have hence aligned our way forward accordingly”. Cafe Coffee Day, India’s largest cafe chain crossed an important milestone in its journey – the 1,000^th cafe and the numbers are growing month after month. Shoppers Stop, Hypercity and Crossword, all part of the K Raheja Group are expanding in a frenetic pace to reach out to the upwardly mobile whose incomes have rose 10-50% since the past year. Spar Hypermarkets and Lifestyle Department Stores are also expanding in their own right. Every Retailer in the country is on expansion mode and the overall optimism seems to be surging high. Airport Retail took a different dimension since the commencement of Terminal Three or T3 at Delhi. The largest airport in India at the moment, the Retail spread is something that’s indeed worthy a case study by itself in times to come. PVR and INOX are determined to entertain more cinema-goers this year with more screens & multiplexes.

Alllll izzz Welll, one of the most popular songs of the year from Amir Khan’s 3 Idiots seems to fit well into the current Retail scenario. Atleast, that’s what everyone around seems to believe! After all, group conviction is the best way to win self-conviction... The year 2011 is expected to be a much better year for Retailers and for us in this business. My overall take is similar although I am personally treading with caution. As an industry, we have committed some expensive mistakes between 2006-08 and we should ensure that same are not repeated. With that, I would like to Wish each one of you a very Happy and a Prosperous New Year ahead. Happy Retailing... 

A curious case of Autorickshaws and Kiranas!

The prepaid queue at the Bangalore City Railway Station was long, but we decided to wait patiently instead of choosing one of the touts who were continuously stalking us. After all, many auto drivers have been waiting patiently notwithstanding the early morning chillness for their turn to pick up a customer at the prepaid counter for a long time. In our city like many others, the night fare (10 pm – 5 am) is usually 1.5 times of the normal and is quite well accepted. So the prepaid fare to my house was Rs. 200/- as against the more luxurious Meru Cab which we took during the onward journey that cost us Rs. 350. While sitting in the auto this morning, I was thinking about need and necessity. At 5am, all we needed was a transportation to reach home safely. During the peak hours last Saturday we had chosen a taxi – we had time at our disposal and didn’t mind paying a bit more for the comfort of a/c during the day time. Is there a lesson or two, I was guessing if one had to compare autos and kiranas. Just after sometime, the headline of a leading English newspaper claimed that 15,000 additional autorickshaw permits were being issued shortly and the total number of such vehicles plying in the city would touch close to 95,000 vehicles!

That’s a lot for a city of size of Bangalore, many would argue. I disagree a bit. It is based on the age-old principle of demand and supply, according to State Transport Commissioner Bhaskar Rao. The power of permit makes the auto driver a ruler. We need more autorickshaws to reduce the nuisance. Liberalising the over-regulated permits will no doubt increase their numbers on road but the good part is that it will also increase options for the commuting public. Auto drivers will have to oblige then, he said. Quite true. In the long run, with personal mobility becoming a compulsive habit and the acceptance of public transport as a sustainable and viable mode of commute, Autos will become more of fillers – running short distances and acting as the last mile connectivity – be it from bus stands or Metro stations while taxis could turn out to be the preferred mode while travelling from home to airport or railway station.

Cut to the real Retail Story. In spite of the increasing number of Organized Retailers, especially in the food, grocery and household segments, it’s quite common to see so many Kirana Stores coming up in smaller neighbourhoods. As is the case of “Bottom of Pyramid”, the consuming class is right there and is expanding its base as well as its propensity to consume. They are moving upwards from the Govt. run – Public Distribution Stores (PDS) to the neighbourhood kiranas whose regular clientele is moving towards neighbourhood Supermarkets, and in turn whose regulars are moving towards the large-format Hyperstores. However, all these consumers, when they need a pack of salt or sugar, vermicelli or Maggi, reach out to the neighbourhood kirana!

The case here is logical and comparable. When the product becomes a bare necessity, consumers would reach out to what’s close by and cheapest as a measure of time – the ubiquitous kirana while the monthly pantry filling or a weekend party shopping would be at a large format organized Super market or Hypermarket. The consumer is fully aware that one doesn’t derive the benefits of organized retail such as bulk discounts, buy one get one, and price-offs at the local kirana, but they know that time is of essence and hence reach out.

I have always remained a proponent of Retail FDI in the hope and faith that it would only do good to Kiranas as well as end users and consumers in the long term. Such anecdotes make our hypotheses stronger.

Long Live Kiranas; Long Live Organized Retailers!

Walk like an “Emperor”

“Show me your shoes and I will tell you how wealthy you are”, goes a saying. Indeed, it’s so true! This is one accessory that most Men care the least about. And the issue is specific to men. Women, as anybody would guess are so fond of their footwear and it’s also a coveted purchase for them. Men always had few choices – in India, in the early 80’s, it was Bata for “office wear”, and Power for “other uses”! The early 90s witnessed the entry of International Brands, initially through the grey market and then through Franchises followed by company owned stores. Today, the footwear market in India according to an IBEF Report is estimated to be USD 2.8 Billion! Since the dawn of the 21^st century, the footwear market in India has taken a dramatic shape. There is fierce competition among the players and interestingly, prices have been steadily coming down, inflation adjusted. The Indian footwear Industry is expected to grow at 20% CAGR over the next few years. At present, the footwear market in India is dominated by Men’s wear that contributes almost 60%. Since the organized footwear industry in India has remained focussed on men’s shoes, the opportunity for retailing women’s footwear is enormous. At present, most women buy their footwear from nearby stores or mass markets with very few organized players such as Soles focussing on this category.

 

The Men’s footwear market can broadly be classified as formal wear (office wear), casual wear (evenings, outings, etc) and sportswear. While this definition is more to classify the categories, it isn’t followed so strictly by one and all, except for the urban male and a few of his counterparts in the smaller cities. The most popular, rather most advertised include “sportswear” and the target audience is clearly the youth and young adults. After all, it’s best to “catch them young, watch them grow”. And thereby Sachin, Dravid, Dhoni and various sportspersons, mostly cricketers are the brand ambassadors. Reebok, which has close to 1,000 stores (most of which are franchised) has a market share of over 50% in this segment – a rare feature when compared globally. The brand received phenomenal upcountry publicity after becoming the official partner for Kolkata Knight Riders in 2008, the IPL team owned by Shah Rukh Khan. One of the biggest strengths of Reebok is its design capability – apparently, the brand launches about 20 styles every quarter and prices start from Rs. 1,000. Adidas has remained focussed though – style and substance put together. While utility takes the cake, it is also known for its fashionable designs. Nike, the smallest player in the market yet among the big three predominantly focuses on various sports. Puma and brand digressions such as Levis & Provogue concentrate on the fashion segment. In the formalwear segment, Bata and its brands including Hush Puppies have remained the most popular across the country. Early 2000s witnessed brands such as Lee Cooper Gaitonde and Woodlands reach the masses with their popular designs and low-pricing. Florsheim, a late entrant took the market by storm due to various innovations including the stress free footwear range that starts from Rs. 5,000 onwards! The last among the batch seems to be Samsonite, the brand known for its sturdy luggages and suit cases which has been spreading its presence across the country. Footwear chains such as Metro & Mochi and Department stores such as Shoppers Stop & Lifestyle have their own private labels and are popular in the mid-segment which looks forward to latest styling at reasonable pricing. International Premium Brands such as Tods, Jimmy Choo and others have just entered the Indian market and have limited presence in major cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore.

So, what’s in it for consumers? To begin with, a wide variety and choice of pricing! There are over 20 Domestic and International Brands operating in India, right from the neighbourhood to the nearby malls or speciality shopping areas. From as low as Rs. 1,000 upto Rs. 6,000, one can find reasonable footwear to suit the various occasions and activities that one performs during the day. The same set of footwear may also be available at a 30% discount at Factory Outlets such as Brand Factory or MegaMart, although it would be 18-24 months into the market with its design and styling. On the whole, for a little extra care, one can walk literally like an emperor! Keep Walking...