The hype around Air India’s big buy

Much is being spoken, written and debated about the recent purchase of 470 aircrafts by Air India from Airbus and Boeing. So much so, that the US President made an official statement that this could create a million jobs for his countrymen. Many politicians thanked the Indian Prime Minister while so many questioned his role in this private affair between a buyer and a seller – why and how would the Governments on both sides have any role. Leaving all the controversies (if one exists!) aside, let us see the opportunity that we are sitting on. 

In the past 8 years or so, the present Government has reactivated over 70 airports. These are not new ones really, for they already existed. Barely. These were airstrips with an ATC Tower at best built before WW 2 by the British. The Union Government through its ambitious project to make the common man fly – Ude Desh ka Aam Nagarik (UDAN) was activated and many unused airports were operationalised. It is another thing altogether that our railway networks are choked and a small section of travellers do not mind paying a premium for air travel.

A view of the Udaipur Airport developed under UDAN

Altogether, the number of air passengers have grown from 37 mn pa in 2010 to 167 mn in 2019 (sans 4 days of the first lockdown!). The number halved for FY 2021, grew to 123 mn in 2022 and would be around 130 mn in the current FY. By 2027, we expect over 200 mn passengers to hit the sky in a year. To give it a perspective, over 2.2 mn (2 Crores) people took train journeys daily in 2019 of which an estimated 8% of them travel in airconditioned classes.

What excites me, as a (Travel) Retail Professional are the possibilities for retail at airports. To accommodate these new 470 aircrafts plus another equal number from all other incumbent airlines at the moment in India, we are expecting a blast in the skies. Don’t worry, it wouldn’t be so choked like our railway networks where one express train has to stop at times to let the other one travel. But the congestion at airports (runways) would be inevitable. 

IGI Airport, New Delhi

The new Terminal 3 built at New Delhi Airport a decade back is already choking during peak hours. Mumbai is building another new airport and the same is the case at Noida. Bangalore has commenced a new parallel runway last year and a brand new terminal T2 which will be fully activated by Q3 FY 2024. Goa has a brand new airport in the north while there is no confirmation of shutting down the existing one in the south of Panjim. 

Keeping aside the top 20 airports – 2 super metros, 4 metros and the top 16 cities in India – there would be 175+ operational Airports across the country by 2025. The bare minimum would be a daily passenger count of 1,000 pax/day while the maximum would be 30,000. The top 6 airports, by then would be handline 30,000 – 60,000 passengers per day! 

At the moment, the spend per passenger in Indian airports is abysmally low. Singapore’s Changi Airport recently announced their CY 2022 revenues from Travel Retail – USD 870 mn. That would be 38% of 2019 revenues, which means in 2019, it would have been USD 2.2 Bn pa. Dubai’s retail and F&B revenues pre-pandemic were a little over USD 2 Bn pa; Hong Kong, Paris CDG, Frankfurt and Zurich Airport, each had Travel Retail Revenues between USD 600 mn to USD 1 Bn pa. All this crashed due to Covid-19 but is slowly bouncing back.

New Integrated Terminal Building coming up at Chennai Airport

In India, Travel Retail has been a non-starter except at the top airports, especially those which were privatised. AAI continues to operate quite differently, in a manner that is neither exciting nor enticing for retailers to embrace the opportunity. However, change is inevitable and we see a huge improvement coming our way. By 2025, over 5 lakh people would be travelling through our Airports every day. Imagine the  potential retail opportunity that we are eyeing. And these are reasonably affluent passengers with disposable incomes. From a humble cup of tea or coffee to a beer / gourmet meal, F&B seems to be a larger pie than product retail at airports. I had written the reason for this in my previous post. 

Nevertheless, Air India’s purchase of 470 aircrafts is a boon for Indian Travel Retail. Happy to be back here in my new avatar in Travel Retail supporting the Trinity - Airports, Retail / F&B companies and the Consumers.

The Popcorn Conundrum

Just realised that I have seen 3 movies over the last 3 weeks at theatres. Two were in top class cinema halls in a Tier 2 town and another was a Tier 2 theatre in Chennai. Meanwhile, I have also seen twice as many movies on OTT platforms during the same period. The reason to watch movies at theatres, for most of us Indians, is that it is a cherished family outing as well as to see our favourite matinee idols on the big screen on the opening week / weekend. 

As the movies that I watched were all of top heroes, the theatres had a full audience. Except that during the interval break, not even a third of them came to the F&B area to buy anything. 

The Hon’ble Supreme Court of India passed an judgement on 3 Jan. ’23 that Multiplexes & Cinema Theatre Owners had the right to not allow outside food (and beverages) inside the screening areas and that the cinema goers had a choice whether to go or not, and cannot therefore demand to take their own food inside the theatres like how it was 2 decades back. From biryanis to biscuits, fruits to homemade snacks like channa dal & groundnuts, ardent cinema goers carried their own food inside the theatres. Once the show was over, it was a nightmare for the theatre owner to get the auditorium cleaned up before the next show began. 

Enter mid-2000s – the onset of posh Multiplexes across India led by PVR Cinemas and INOX as well as modernisation of screens by standalone theatre owners across India. Around the year 2,000, there were 18,000 screens in India when the country produced over 1,000+ movies pa across 15 languages including foreign-language dubbed movies. By 2019, there were a mere 11,000 screens in India, of which the Multiplex chains had a share of over 2,500. 

Cut to Dec. 2022, there are a mere 8,500 screens of which almost 3,000 are in Multiplexes. 

In 2019, India produced 2,000 movies, running an annual business of over Rs. 30,000 Cr. Hindi  language films accounted for almost 45% while Tamil and Telugu languages made about 300 movies each annually. Post-pandemic, film watching trends have changed tremendously across the world and India is no different. Acc to Q3 FY 22-23 Financials of PVR Cinemas, the occupancy rate has diminished to 29% compared to 36% in the same period in 2019. Tickets prices  have gone up 18% - perhaps keeping inflation in mind. But that’s not the real reason why admissions dropped by a whopping 20% during the said Quarter. 

The reason is the price of Popcorn at theatres! Yes.

For most Indians, watching a movie is a family outing. People plan in advance, get dressed to look their best and travel with glee to watch a movie. Assuming the avg. ticket price pan-India (except Bombay, Delhi and Bangalore) is around Rs. 200 for a decent theatre, the cost per family of 4 is Rs. 800. Add parking charges for 2W/4W and a meal before or after. That would work out to Rs. 1,500- Rs. 2,000 already. Now, if the popcorn at the theatre is going to cost Rs. 100/- per person (usually these are family packs & combos of Rs. 250 and above!), add a beverage or 2 and some more snacks, the food bill is already as much as the movie ticket cost if not more. Most Indians, who were avoiding this madness before the pandemic have completely moved off watching movies in the big screens since 2022 onwards. The numbers speak. 

So why do theatres charge so much for Popcorn and food? Coz, they can never make money & be profitable with such ticket prices, especially if the occupancy rates are so low! 

Ok, Shah Rukh’s Pathaan (2023) has already crossed Rs. 200 Cr in BO collections (in 5 days)  worldwide as I write this; So have 1 or 2 movies each across regional languages, but these are exceptions. Most films of 2022 bombed at the BO. The ones that made headlines were non-Hindi language movies and were (dubbed) releases. 

A theatre needs sustained footfall through the year. 30-40% occupancy during the weekdays and 70% or above over weekends is a theatre owner’s delight. It used to happen until 2015-16. Until Popcorn prices went up! 

Fizzy Coke and Pepsi (with 90% gas & water) and 10% essence have also gone rogue with their sizing & pricing. No one in India wants to drink so much of sugary liquids anyway and in such short duration. To get back audiences to the plexes, we need decent content (of movies). And cheaper F&B, perhaps. One way is to subsidise the food offering; another way is to use them as a bait to get more audience. Afterall, subsidising is a national mantra in India. Sigh. 

Good Bye 2022, Hello ‘23

 

Here’s wishing you all a Happy Calendar Year 2023. May this new year bring a lot of happiness and cheer to everyone. On this day last year, I was working for Specsmakers, leading Sales & Marketing for the 10 year-old brand, the largest optical retail network in South India and the third largest in the country with 250+ stores back then. Around the same time, the scare for a third wave of the dreaded Covid-19 infection was all over the place. It had a new code-name: Omicron! Government of India as well as various State Governments advised several measures, including shutting down of retail stores, malls and commercial establishments over the weekends. Andhra Pradesh took no measure and maintained status quo; Tamil Nadu advised shutting down only on Sundays; Karnataka, however advised a closure for the entire weekend. Most Indians remained in a huge sense of anxiety over their careers, professions, businesses, kids’ education and so on. However, all these worries were put in the backburner as Omicron had limited or very marginal impact on most of us.

This is when the government pushed us to take the second vaccine, which ensured a quick and safe turnaround for the ailing Retail sector, which had taken the worst beating for the previous 18 months, ever since the first lockdown began in Mar. ’20. 

My career too, zoomed along with the fledgling economy. I managed to get back to the apparel industry, jumping ship to Indian Terrain, a 2-decade old brand, most famous for its shirts, especially the Madras Checks. The company operates over 210+ stores across India and I was responsible for the entire retail business, managing a turnover upwards of Rs. 250 Cr pa. Sales, Marketing & Branding, Merchandising, New stores expansion, Project Management, Visual Merchandising and Staff training, all rolled into me. In a span of less than 6 months, I managed to visit 96 stores across India, from Guwahati to Ahmedabad, Chandigarh to Nagercoil and many in between. The month of September was among the busiest in my career, according to Google Trips, which maintains a record of where I went, what I did and so on. 

Onam was the first big campaign that I undertook, visiting the state of Kerala 45 days before the festival and screening the markets. We sensed a huge opportunity with the return of NRI Malayalees to their home towns after a gap of 2 years, due to Covid-19 led travel restrictions. Interestingly and unfortunately, the sales uptick that was envisaged didn’t happen. One, there was a severe rain around the festival week; second and most importantly, sales (for most other brands as well) remained flat before and during the peak shopping weak. This was a learning of sorts. It is not necessary that Sales would surge only before the peak season, for the graph has been on the upward trend since Feb-Mar. ’22. We witnessed somewhat the same across North & West India, just around Diwali as well. No surprises here. 

However, sales for the entire retail industry surrounding fashion, apparel, accessories and lifestyle had reached pre-2019 levels or at par. On the contrary, many brands saw a volume decline (in Sales), but these were due to the making of the brands themselves. Wrong choice of (new) locations, unavailability of merchandise at the right moment and most importantly, staff demotivation due to reasons such as salaries remaining flat, lower than expected & delayed disbursement of incentives for the previous FY and overall lack of interest in the working environment are some of the key reasons why many brands faltered. 

I moved out from the company in November due to differences with the Management. No regrets though, every tenure and every day is a learning after all. Over the past 2 months, I have been introspecting on some of the measures I had taken (or rather not) which led to two quick exists in less than 2 financial years. I am hoping (and working towards) that 2023 and beyond is going to be a more stable period ahead. Everything is in my hands, of course! Happy New Year 2023 once again to everyone and may this year be joyful to all of us! Cheers.