B for Business Plan

Most Retail Startups in India who have raised millions of dollars from Investors haven’t been able to scale their business. This applies to startups across verticals but I am going to stick largely to Retail in this article. Despite elaborate workings over hundreds of cups of coffee and tea, thousands of manhours and dozens of group meetings, why do B-Plans go wrong? Why are businesses unable to actually achieve the proposed numbers? Let’s take a look.

Unreasonable Assumptions: One of the biggest mistakes Retail companies make is to have unreasonable assumptions while building a B-Plan. Either their assumptions are unachievable or unrealistic, but both ways they cannot be undone once the plan is finalized. For example, if a business presumes to grow at 200% month-on-month, despite the ripe and raw market opportunity, it is not always possible because there could be certain market restrictions or natural issues that could come up. The 2015 infamous Chennai floods is a case in example. My own start-up commenced operations in Oct. 2015 and had grand plans for December but it was a white-wash not just for us but across businesses in Chennai. Never in my dream would I have thought that a city like Chennai could be stumped and go down under for over three weeks. Therefore, while it is important to have aggressive B-Plans, it is important to include such emergencies if not in detail, atleast as a back-up.

B-Plan for Investor Happiness: This is another mistake that many startups in Retail make, which is to basically satisfy their Investors, atleast on paper. This should never ever be done because the business must be built for customers and not the Investors. While it is imperative that the B-Plan shows profitability at some stage, it should be built keeping in mind the realistic impending opportunity rather than a positive pitch to the Investor.

Decking up the Excel Sheets: Most often, the B-Plan makers build one to make the Excel Sheet glossy and attractive without considering ground realities. In such cases, what will be revealed as RoI and Profitability will completely depend on the inputs given by the one building a B-Plan and not really the actual outcome keeping in mind the various adversaries the start-up may have to face.

Real Vs. Virtual Markets (Consumers): Many a time, start-ups building B-Plans go over the board in their assumptions of customers, including first time and repeat customers. For Ex., it is assumed that the cost of acquiring could be Rs. X, but what is not considered is retaining the same customer for the next 3-4 transactions. If a freebie is offered with every subsequent purchase to retain the customer, then ideally that should be included in the B-Plan as well.

Going overboard on Expenses: Many startups do this; they go overboard in their spends, especially capital expenditure such as buying a Macbook instead of a Dell which may not be necessary at the initial stages at all.

The above are just a few pointers that should be remembered while building a B-Plan. Do add your points below in the comments and share your insights.

A for Attrition

My father started and ended his career after 33 years at ITC Limited, the largest cigarette manufacturing company in India, which has now morphed itself in to a full-fledged Consumer Products Company. I always used to wonder how such traditional companies could retain their employees so long while new-age Retail Companies - established players as well as newer startups fail to do so. One of the biggest issues plaguing Organized Retail (Offline & Online) today is – not just lack of Investments or returning customers, rather staff attrition. Despite best efforts by the company, from monthly felicitations, cash rewards, mid-course promotions, and of course the house parties at startups that sometimes even have beer and snacks flowing, employees leave. At times, abruptly.

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Why Employees leave – Myths

Competition: Loyal employees, almost certainly never jump to competition. They leave their present organization on the premise that employee-friendliness is better at the Competitor’s place. And the job-hopping continues.

Higher Pay: Most employees never work just for money. They work for their passion towards Retail and serving customers whole-heartedly. Indeed, a good salary is important, but it is certainly not the only reason for them to leave.

Recognition & Rewards: While most Retail companies have a robust R&R mechanism, it generally fails to reward deserving candidates due to internal conflicts, nepotism and favoritism. Employees leave when they are not recognized for their hard work, especially at the front-end grass-root levels.

Distance to travel: Another big myth is employees feel the workplace is too far from their residence. Certainly not. Happy employees will travel any length to their workplace provided they are happy working for the Employer.

False promises: At times, Employers make tall promises about the job, work-life balance, promotion opportunities and incentives in addition to remuneration. When these are not kept up, employees feel cheated and walk away.

There is an old adage, which goes “Employees never leave an Organization, they leave their bosses”. This is so much true and relevant in current times when there are so many jobs that are getting mechanized from Retail Warehouses to Cashier checkout points. 

Offline Retail stores rely completely on human values and relationships between the front-end employees and their customers, so for these Retailers it is even more important to ensure the staff are kept happy.  At senior levels in the Organizations, the CXOs must ensure not just a happy working environment but must also measure these experiences from time to time and also keep improvising it. Top Retailers in the world have seen closure of their businesses and one of the key attributes to that is employee retention.

--> For most of us, A for Attrition is a bad word. But we must strive our best to ensure that this word loses significance in our business lives, slowly but steadily.

Retail horoscope 2017

There have been predictions written about sun signs and moon signs. So, I set-out writing one for the Retail Industry in which I complete 20 years this year . These are not purely fictional but I see things going this way. Take a look and let me know what you think.

Kirana Stores

The largest Retail segment, the sem-organized and unorganized Kirana Stores are set for a huge overhaul. With the onset of demonetization, Kirana stores do not have a choice but to go digital. All this while, most of them have been collecting cash for sales which mostly go unaccounted causing a great loss to the exchequer. This will change in 2017. From Bank EDC machines to Mobile Wallets, they will start accepting every form of money other than cash. A robust y-o-y growth is also seen in this business model.

Supermarkets

Neighborhood Supermarkets from large retail chains have already been making a comeback. Nilgiris is leading from the front through Franchising, while Aditya Birla More seems to merge with Future Group, and so would Heritage Retail this year. None of the supermarket chains have an online presence due to reasons best known to them. I don’t see any change here. Heritage is experimenting something but I am not sure if they would be scale up like the Hyperlocal players. Margins will be strained and even store profitability will be a challenge. I see more consolidation in 2017 among the medium sized players.

Hypermarkets

The most abused retail format of the last half a decade, the Hypermarkets have come a full circle. As I write this article, the store sizes have come down from 25,000-45,000 sft to as low as 8,000 sft. While poor availability of retail space is one of the reasons, the sheer ability to sell higher volumes like in Western markets is the core reasons. Indian customers prefer fresh products, be it rice or atta or oil or vegetables and fruits. Also, the households are smaller in size, so are the kitchens and refridgerators. Quite obviously the trolley size will be smaller. With most Mall spaces exhausted and almost no new Mall of any significance across major metros, Hypers may look for standalone sites in suburban areas.

Apparel Retail / Specialty

With a chunk of this format having moved online, from Diapers to Accessories to shirts to dresses, this offline retail format would see more store exits in 2017. The franchisee-dominated model will find few takers and loss making / average performing stores will be closed or consolidated. Malls are already operating at an average 15-25% vacancy of Vanilla Store locations and this year will be worse with burgeoning rent and maintenance cost (the CAM Scam!). Consumers will move towards E-Commerce for specialty retail and will be fine to shop even with limited or nil discounts due to the convenience it offers. Bad year for Retailers in this space which will see many small and regional Brands winding up.

Consumer Durables Retail

With E-Commerce already swooping a majority of consumer durable retail sales, such Retailers will be left in the lurch. Brands, who have initially supported offline retailers in the mid-2000s have started balancing their act with e-commerce. 2017 will see a swing in their loyalties towards e-commerce players. With tighter margins, higher rentals, surging operating costs, many such Retailers dealing in Consumer Durables will consolidate their store count while many would shut stores which are not making enough profits. Overall very challenging year for retailers in this space.

Jewelry Retail

The most affected sector after Demonitization is this retail format. Various media reports suggest how some leading players made a killing on 8^th and 9^th Nov. 2016 after the Prime Minister made the historical announcement. With 90% or more of their business in cash, and it’s quite well known how much of them get accounted, Bullion retailers will face heat the most. A significant number of stores would be thrown out of business. Large chains which have PE Investments made based on PPTs and Excel File projections will face a blank wall, with valuations diving deep and would find the going very tough. Extremely tough year for Retailers in this space. The market will dictate terms in May around Akshaya Trithiya when consumers go bonkers buying bullion.

Food & Beverage

With the Industry having matured in the last decade, it is time for consolidation for F&B Retailers. With scale in place, players like CCD, Dominos and McD will now consolidate their presence and focus on store EBIDTA. New initiatives such as Home Delivery and signing up with delivery companies will bring more business while a tired economy will put pressure on attract store footfalls. Outlet sizes will reduce by 30-50% across formats. There is a sudden upswing in specialty bars and pubs and this trend will continue. A growing and discerning set of gastro-enthusiasts will mean new entrants and new formats are on the anvil. Interesting space for Startups in this space.

 E-Commerce

It’s been 10 years since Flipkart the market leader was born. Sadly, this year would be the most challenging to the company that made e-commerce take off in this country where less than 10% of the Retail Industry is organized. With 1,000s of e-commerce companies of various sizes and shapes, names and offering in the market, the space would see a blood bath this year too. Most such companies which did not have a significant differentiator will have to bid adieu. Less than a Billion Dollar will go in to investments in existing companies while new startups will find the going tough. Amazon will consolidate itself in the market and will become a household name with higher market share and mind share. Hyperlocal Market places which connect offline retailers online will have a good run, since this model is reasonable new to customers. There will be some consolidation in this space too but new entrants will carve a niche. Reasonable investments are expected in this space.

Consumer

A weak economy, struggling to grow since the last 5 years will mean strained purses for consumers. They will be cautious this year on spending and will demand quality and service from Retailers than ever before.